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Quarterly Excess Death Rate Analysis

European Countries

Data Sources: Eurostat, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, UN.

February 2024

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Data:

The data is based upon weekly deaths data from eurostat spanning from 2010 to 2023. For some countries (such as Germany) data is unavailable; and for others it is only available from 2015 onwards.

Countries: AT, BE, BG, CZ, DK, DE, EL (Greece), ES, FR, IT, HU, NL, PL, PT, RO, FI, SE, NO.

Source for Weekly Deaths (Eurostat): Eurostat table: Deaths by week, sex and 5-year age group.

Source for Vaccination data: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

Source for Population Estimates (Eurostat and UN): Eurostat table: Population on 1st January by age, sex and type of projection.

Comment:

The dashboard below allows the user to view interactively the analysis of quarterly excess mortality for different age groups in different European countries. It allows individuals, researchers and institutions to visualise the data, and make their own conclusions based upon what they view. Users can browse the different countries and age groups. Each interactive chart attempts to capture different aspects of the observed excess mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic years. All the data is downloadable and the original data sources, as well as methodologies to analyse the data, are provided. We will endeavour to update our servers as new data becomes available.

Quarterly Excess Mortality Analysis

We obtain quarterly excess deaths estimates by aggregating in quarters, data that is based on our weekly analysis of excess deaths.

In order to estimate weekly excess mortality we perform a 2-step approach to estimate the baseline deaths. The first step is by estimating the trend in death rates using annual data as described in our methodology papers, while using method 2C.

The second step is to estimate weekly excess deaths by comparing deaths or death rates in a given week with the average death rate, which is computed using the average weekly frequency of deaths over a period of N-years (typically 5 to 10 years depending on the data availability). By using both methods in conjunction we obtain a trend adjusted and week of year adjusted estimate for excess mortality.

A quarterly analysis of excess deaths allows us to then use different metrics to estimate seasonally adjusted pattern in excess mortality. For example, we can compare excess mortality in Q1 of 2022 versus Q1 of 2021 to observe the impact of the vaccination policy on excess mortality.

Quarterly Evolution in Excess Mortality vs Vax.

The following chart shows the quarterly (annualised) excess mortality from 2020 to 2023, for different age groups. The Covid-19 vaccinations data (right hand scale) refers to the total accumulated doses at the end of each quarter, as a percentage of the respective age group population.

The user can specify the European country and the age group. It should be noted that some countries do not provide either the Covid-19 vaccination data or weekly deaths data to Eurostat, such as for example Germany.

Quarterly excess mortality, from 2020 to 2023.

Excess Mortality - Comparative Metrics

In this section the user can have a more detailed look at quarterly excess mortality by allowing for comparing different metrics over time and age group, as well as visualising the individual vaccine dose rollout.

Quarterly Comparative Metrics for Excess Death Rates

The chart below shows the evolution of the quarter to quarter change in excess mortality from 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023. The user can select the age group and country. What one is expected to observe is that as the pandemic evolved, changes in excess deaths should turn negative due to the rise in natural immunity or/and vaccination.

The chart below shows the quarter to quarter change in excess mortality for all age groups, for a specific period. The individual Covid-19 vaccination doses as a percentage of the age group population are also shown. The user can specify the period and country.

Quarter Comparison of Excess Mortality,
by age group

The following chart allows the user to perform quarter to quarter comparisons in excess mortality during 2020,2021 and 2022, for the different age groups.

This chart is particularly interesting to investigate excess mortality in seasonally equivalent periods in different years. The vaccine penetration rate for the end 0f 2021 is also shown.

The interactive chart allows the user to specify the European country and desired comparison quarter.

Quarter comparison of excess mortality for different age groups.

Complementary Analysis

Go to Quarter Correlation Analysis with age group selection.

Go to Yearly Correlation Analysis.

Go to Yearly Analysis.

Go to Weekly Analysis.